About The Analysts
David Owen is Founder and Chief Economist of Saltmarsh Economics. He was formerly Chief European Economist, Jefferies and before that, Chief Economist, Developed Markets, Dresdner Kleinwort. For many years he Chaired the Investment Committee of Save the Children, UK. He has over 35 years of experience covering central banks (particularly the BoE and ECB) and the economic cycle, and following his experience at Save the Children, ESG investing and climate change. He has led or been part of teams ranked Number 1 by institutional investors, for both UK and European economics.
He has a BSc in Mathematics & Economics from Warwick University and a MSc in Economics & Econometrics from Southampton, but never submitted his PhD thesis “Structural breaks & the significance of the exchange rate for the UK economy.” When not in London or cycling in the Surrey Hills, David can often be found on the saltmarshes of North Norfolk. These are another example of a complex ecosystem, seemingly existing on the edge of chaos and susceptible to all things climate, but exhibiting their own rhythms and patterns.
Marchel Alexandrovich is a Partner at Saltmarsh Economics. His primary focus is on the euro area economy, the ECB and inflation. This includes undertaking detailed analysis of the data in his “Inflation/Deflation Monitor” and “European Pricing Survey” publications, as well as examining the effects of demographic and technological changes on global inflation. In addition, he produces detailed analysis of Central Bank balance sheets, and the euro area’s public sector finance data.
Before joining Saltmarsh Economics, between 2011 and 2022 he was a Managing Director and a Senior Economist at Jefferies International. He joined from Lloyds Banking Group where he spent three years initially working as a member of the Chief Economist’s Office and then part of the bank’s Capital Markets division. He started his career in 2001 at Dresdner Kleinwort focused on the UK and euro area economies. Marchel has travelled extensively seeing Central Bank officials and private sector investors around the world, and is a regular contributor in the press and media outlets. Marchel received an MPhil in Economics from Oxford and a BSc from Carnegie Mellon University.
David and Marchel’s careers have included rapid structural change, long periods of extremely low volatility and speculative bubbles, followed by severe market corrections, banking and exchange rate crises. Most recently, they had first hand experience of working very closely with a European government bond trading desk and investors during the euro area crisis, and unprecedented government and central bank support, both before and after COVID.
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Saltmarsh Economics was established by David Owen in October 2021 to focus on the economic and policy implications of climate change, the policy debate in the UK, imbalances in the euro area and structural changes not priced into financial markets. The addition of Marchel Alexandrovich further widened out the research offering to provide, in particular, more detailed analysis on the ECB and the Eurosystem, along with highly disaggregated examination of inflation trends, for individual countries.
Our work draws heavily on the National and Financial Accounts data, monetary trends, capital flows, detailed examination of underlying inflation trends, as well as evolving academic evidence and central bank research, before it becomes more widely discussed and part of consensus thinking. We will also make use of real time data where appropriate. We will be less focused on ESG, but much more on the wider economic and policy issues of the race to net zero, and potential winners and losers not priced into markets. When it comes to Europe, much of our focus will be on the complexities of how QE, liquidity provision and government support works in the euro area, something very different to that of the US.
Subscriptions to Saltmarsh Economics will include a regular flow of commentaries and quarterlies, partly based around the timings of important BoE and ECB meetings. Meetings on request.