MacroClimate Research, Data and Investment Strategy

Saltmarsh Economics is an independent consultancy focused on the ECB, the BoE and the impact of climate change on growth, inflation, monetary policy and financial markets. In addition to publishing research, we develop proprietary indicators to quantify country and sector climate risk, and produce our own sovereign ESG/Climate-Risk scores. We apply our work to generate investment ideas with asset managers in the climate and responsible investment space.

Saltmarsh Economics was established in 2021 to focus on the economic and policy implications of climate change, the macro policy debate in the UK and the Euro Area, and structural changes not priced into financial markets. With decades of experience covering the BoE and the ECB, we also focus on the policy roadmap for the two central banks and complexities of their balance sheets.

Our work draws heavily on the National and Financial Accounts data (including macro measures of profits), as well as evolving academic evidence and central bank research, before it becomes more widely discussed and part of consensus thinking. We also make use of real time data where appropriate.

Our written research covers a range of topics relevant to European/UK investors and policymakers, interested in the economic debate and the race to net zero. Our work includes a mix of detailed analysis of the underlying economic data, academic evidence and central bank research.

To help bring the various strands of our research together, we developed the Saltmarsh Economic Climate Index (SECI) which scores how well countries are positioned to deal with climate change risk (we cover every large DM and EM economy). It’s our own, enhanced, version of sovereign ESG scores. We pull in standard macro variables (private + public sector debt, trend growth, interest rates etc.), and then overlay this with the data on national CO2 emissions, energy usage, exposure of each economy to a higher price of carbon, and the physical risks that each economy faces from a changing climate.

Our clients get access to: 1) Research; 2) Data; 3) Sovereign ESG/Climate-Risk Scores & Asset Allocation models.

1. Research – we publish on climate change risk, ECB/BoE policy and the links between climate change and macroeconomics. The research is not ‘academic’, it is practical and drives our investment themes. The work is aimed at fund managers at insurance companies and pension funds, risk specialists, and asset allocators across fixed income (sovereign bonds and credit) and equities. As sell-side economists with decades of experience (Jefferies, Lloyds Banking Group, Dresdner, Kleinwort Benson), the team understands the relationship between macroeconomics and markets.

2. Data tracked:

National CO2 emissions (domestic and imported, for many countries on a quarterly basis and seasonally adjusted);
Sectoral emissions – domestically generated and those embedded in imports (Scope 3; 70+ Sectors);
Projected losses related to climate change (physical risk and transition risk);
Data on natural disasters;
Data on extreme temperature and rainfall patterns;
Key macro variables which underpin the ability of each economy to deal with climate change risk.

3. Sovereign ESG/Climate-Risk Scores & Asset Allocation – some clients want the analysis and methodology of why we think one country is better positioned to deal with climate change over another (SECI country scores can be updated every quarter). Other clients want to build their own models and rank countries in their specific way. In this case, we open our Black Box and a client can adapt it to their requirements.